- W0 harm validation (40 reps): CCW and sequential ITT unbiased for their truths (|z| <= 0.7)
- PVI models fitted separately inside and after the window
- experiments.yml grid (8 worlds x 3 scenarios; designs x V1-V4; NCE; RCTs); smoke run clean
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>
- truths.R: interventional truths by common random numbers (A, B1, B2, sequential ITT)
- estimators.R: weighted Aalen-Johansen with influence-function SEs (patient / physician cluster)
- rct.R: realistic and ideal trials, ITT and as-treated; RCT ITT truths
- scenario effects tuned in W0: harm +5.1 pp, benefit-then-harm -1.2 pp at 24 mo, +3.1 at 60
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>
- latent-severity DGP with physicians (skill, style), policies A/B1/B2/sequential, common random numbers
- sharp null exact at the patient level (tested)
- 01_calibrate.R: joint logit-scale update; all worlds match early PVI 3.2%, late PVI 22.5/3.6%, CLTI 7.8%, death 35%
- W4 deferral target 15% (trial-like crossover); post-CLTI PVI lowered so late PVI is mostly elective
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>
chendun1995andClaude Opus 5.5