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chendun1995andClaude Opus 5.5 d369a16208 D55: EHR/registry-like world (noisy severity), non-random trial consent, trial analyses at 12/24/60 months 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>
 2026-10-28 16:26:01 -04:00
chendun1995andClaude Opus 5.5 307f75b63e Literature review 3: surgical RCT challenges vs TTE (merged from three verified drafts), draft Table 1, candidate simulation additions 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>
 2026-10-28 16:13:29 -04:00
chendun1995andClaude Opus 5.5 ffdc23ad63 D54: paper framing - can TTE overcome the problems of surgical RCTs 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>
 2026-10-28 15:46:49 -04:00
chendun1995andClaude Opus 5.5 63114352b7 Report: bootstrap SE section (Table 6) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>
 2026-10-28 07:21:33 -04:00
chendun1995andClaude Opus 5.5 5304c89316 D53: landmark on baseline covariates (month-5 version as landmark_m5), NCO-1 depends on PVI-free severity, physician-cluster bootstrap script 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>
 2026-10-28 07:20:32 -04:00
chendun1995andClaude Opus 5.5 fbc417662c Draft results: performance summary, draft report (Figs 1-3, Tables 2-5), D52 open questions 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>
 2026-10-28 06:59:49 -04:00
chendun1995andClaude Opus 5.5 cfc9da2c87 Speed-ups (shared PVI fit, clones once, case-control sampled deferred model); final scale 200 reps extending the draft (D51) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>
 2026-10-27 09:31:03 -04:00
chendun1995andClaude Opus 5.5 e1457ccc1e Decisions 45-50: scenario tuning, NC truths, oracle own estimand, separate PVI phases, validation 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>
 2026-10-27 09:20:22 -04:00
chendun1995andClaude Opus 5.5 383ef89c2a Validation, NCE analysis, per-replicate oracle for landmark/naive, RCT truths script, resumable experiment runner 
- W0 harm validation (40 reps): CCW and sequential ITT unbiased for their truths (|z| <= 0.7)
- PVI models fitted separately inside and after the window
- experiments.yml grid (8 worlds x 3 scenarios; designs x V1-V4; NCE; RCTs); smoke run clean

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>
 2026-10-27 09:19:59 -04:00
chendun1995andClaude Opus 5.5 fc1461d5b5 Truths, estimators (naive, landmark, CCW, sequential; physician variants V1-V4) and simulated RCTs 
- truths.R: interventional truths by common random numbers (A, B1, B2, sequential ITT)
- estimators.R: weighted Aalen-Johansen with influence-function SEs (patient / physician cluster)
- rct.R: realistic and ideal trials, ITT and as-treated; RCT ITT truths
- scenario effects tuned in W0: harm +5.1 pp, benefit-then-harm -1.2 pp at 24 mo, +3.1 at 60

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>
 2026-10-27 09:01:13 -04:00
chendun1995andClaude Opus 5.5 5ae8874693 Decisions 40-44: build notes for simulator and calibration 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>
 2026-10-27 08:15:30 -04:00
chendun1995andClaude Opus 5.5 5c4407f876 pvisim: parameters, simulator, claims records, tests; calibration of all worlds to Medicare targets 
- latent-severity DGP with physicians (skill, style), policies A/B1/B2/sequential, common random numbers
- sharp null exact at the patient level (tested)
- 01_calibrate.R: joint logit-scale update; all worlds match early PVI 3.2%, late PVI 22.5/3.6%, CLTI 7.8%, death 35%
- W4 deferral target 15% (trial-like crossover); post-CLTI PVI lowered so late PVI is mostly elective

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>
 2026-10-27 08:15:18 -04:00
chendun1995andClaude Opus 5.5 eb886d5505 Decisions 38-39: keep the three aims 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>
 2026-10-27 07:54:19 -04:00
chendun1995andClaude Opus 5.5 a59363a4b9 Decisions 34-37 (sharp disease null, threat strengths, NCE adjustment, sorting) applied to the analysis plan 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>
 2026-10-27 07:01:05 -04:00
chendun1995andClaude Opus 5.5 d2d1e3a1d4 Analysis plan v1.0 (md + docx) with draft Table 1 of claudication RCTs 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>
 2026-10-27 06:58:58 -04:00
chendun1995andClaude Opus 5.5 645713f7ec Decisions 32-33: negative controls 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>
 2026-10-27 06:52:22 -04:00
chendun1995andClaude Opus 5.5 c3c22fdcdf Literature reviews and decisions log (rounds 1-5) for the early-PVI TTE simulation 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>
 2026-10-27 06:51:17 -04:00
chendun1995 1ee362ff97 ready set go 2026-10-27 05:56:51 -04:00