Truths, estimators (naive, landmark, CCW, sequential; physician variants V1-V4) and simulated RCTs

- truths.R: interventional truths by common random numbers (A, B1, B2, sequential ITT) - estimators.R: weighted Aalen-Johansen with influence-function SEs (patient / physician cluster) - rct.R: realistic and ideal trials, ITT and as-treated; RCT ITT truths - scenario effects tuned in W0: harm +5.1 pp, benefit-then-harm -1.2 pp at 24 mo, +3.1 at 60 Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>
2026-10-27 09:01:13 -04:00
parent 5ae8874693
commit fc1461d5b5
8 changed files with 566 additions and 7 deletions
@@ -121,5 +121,6 @@ worlds:                      # one factor at a time (plan section 5.2, D24). Ove

 scenarios:                   # truth scenarios (plan section 5.3, D34)
  "null": {effect: {relief: 0.0, kappa: 0.0}}           # sharp disease null
-  harm: {effect: {relief: 0.3, kappa: 0.03}}          # tuned to RD about +5 pp (calibration)
-  benefit_harm: {effect: {relief: 1.2, kappa: 0.04}}  # curves cross; tuned in calibration
+  harm: {effect: {relief: 0.3, kappa: 0.039}}         # W0: disease-composite RD(A-B1) +5.1 pp at 60 months
+  benefit_harm: {effect: {relief: 2.0, kappa: 0.075}} # W0: RD -1.2 pp at 24 months, +3.1 pp at 60
+  # tuned in W0 with simulations/explore_scenarios.R (2e5 patients); the same mechanism is used in every world