D55: EHR/registry-like world (noisy severity), non-random trial consent, trial analyses at 12/24/60 months

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>

pvisim/inst/params/dgp_default.yml

@@ -83,7 +83,8 @@ negative_controls:           # never depend on PVI
   nce:  {intercept: -5.7, style: 0.8, frailty: -0.2}                # low-value procedure, months 0-5
 
 measurement:                 # what the analyst sees. World W5 switches to claims proxies
-  severity: exact            # exact: analyst sees Z_t. proxy: only visit/testing counts
+  severity: exact            # exact: analyst sees Z_t. proxy: only visit/testing counts. noisy: Z_t + error (EHR/registry)
+  noise_sd: 0.75             # noisy: SD of the monthly measurement error; Z_t has SD about 1 at diagnosis, so cor(observed, true) is about 0.8
   proxy_intercept: -1.0      # monthly count ~ Poisson(exp(proxy_intercept + proxy_z * Z_t))
   proxy_z: 0.5
   proxy_window: 3            # observed severity = log1p(sum of counts over the last 3 months)
@@ -113,6 +114,8 @@ worlds:                      # one factor at a time (plan section 5.2, D24). Ove
     calibration_targets: {late_not: 0.15}
   W5:
     measurement: {severity: proxy, frailty_reliability: 0.4, smoking: coded}
+  WE:                        # EHR/registry-like: severity recorded (ABI, symptom class) but with error (D55)
+    measurement: {severity: noisy, frailty_reliability: 0.7, smoking: true}
   WR:
     effect: {skill_kappa: 0.5}
     treatment: {window: {style: 1.6}, deferred: {style: 1.6, z: 0.8}}   # deferral at the Sorber rate, but severity-driven